Poker Tips

Introduction.

What are the odds for you winning the pot?

Learning to calculate pot odds and knowing how to use pot odds is one sure-fire way to help you get the most out of your poker game. The pot odds are simply what the pot would give you if you were to call a bet; and taking a simple example that means if there’s $100 in the pot with a final bet of $20 – your pot odds are 5:1 (5-to-1). So, nothing outstanding there; but there is an important reason for always taking a moment to calculate exactly what the pots odds are – it will help you to determine what your expectations can be. If you think your chance of winning is better than the pot odds, 5:1 in this example, then you’d be correct to call. However, if you think you’ve less than a 1:5 (1-in-5) chance of winning – fold! This should be an objective decision, where your head rules your heart. Unfortunately, not all of the ‘pot odds’ decisions you need to make are quite so straightforward.

Pot odds and calling even when there are more cards available.

This one gets a bit more mathematical. If you’re playing stud or draw poker, should you call before the draw? For example, in a five card draw poker game imagine you’ve got a flush draw and you know you need to improve it to win, what chance have you of improving compared to your pot odds? On a $100 pot calling a $20 bet would be correct, you’ve got at least a 5:1 chance of making the flush. The actual figure here could be as low as 4.22:1; how’s that? Well, in a 52 card deck you’ll have five cards leaving 47 unseen; if you already have four of a suit then any of nine cards in the unseen 47 will do you. That leaves 38 cards you don’t want to get – 38 to 9, comes down to 4.22:1. Have a go at doing the math yourself for if say you had 9D, 10D, JA, QD; and I’ll give you the answer at the end of this piece.

Stud poker and face-up dealt cards.

Winning a pot that big - anyone would smile.

In stud poker face-up dealt cards can also referred to as exposed cards; exposed cards puts calculating pot odds on a different footing. Your play will of course be altered by what you see in the other player’s hands as well as any folded cards. If you don’t know already, you’d quickly learn not to try playing a pair in seven card stud, if the other pair is already being shown. But, your hand can improve dependant on how many cards are needed and how many are already exposed. With three cards from the same suit, without any other cards being seen you can be confident of making a flush of that suit in seven cards, that’s the same as saying every 1:5.56 times. OK, so its stud poker, the next cards are dealt face-up; imagine just one of your opponents having a card from the same suit that you’re after – what’s happened to your chance of drawing a card you want? Your chances have actually increased, although one player has ‘one of your cards’ you’ve seen that no other players have been dealt any, so the proportion of the suit you’re after in the remaining cards has increased – increasing your chances. However, the converse is also true. The more of your suit that are dealt the less your chances of winning become. As a rule of thumb, with four of your suit out – your hands no longer worth calling and even three cards out should really get you thinking about the hands viability. With four of your suit out your chances of success reduce down to less than 10% at 1:10.99.

Your seat position.

Sometimes even your seat position can influence your view and position regarding the pot odds. Watch out for a player before you betting with the possibility of the person after you then raising. With $100 in the pot a bet of $20 gives you the new odds of 6:1. However, with the person after you raising and the first person then calling – if you call the raise the odds fall back to 4.5:1. Why, well with a pot of $140 you’ve got to put in $40; if the first person to bet then raises again the odds for you fall again – $220/$60, giving 3.37:1. If they carry on like this it’s pretty reasonable to assume they’ve got good hands – and it’s probably time to fold.

Pot odds with all the cards out.

A pair of aces is always good for your pot odds

With all the cards out making a decision about how favorable the pot odds are becomes more subjective; where your heat might yet rule over your head. You need to decide is your hand worth making a call; a decision you now need to make based on the pot odds and how likely you think it is that you’ve got the winning hand. So the inevitable questions arise – is your opponent bluffing, can you beat his/her bluff, just how good is your hand? I’m afraid the only answer to this comes through experience; and a two pair in seven card stud could leave an inexperienced player pondering their options all night. This is a tough call – and you’ll just have to learn the hard way how to read other players hands.

The more outs the better.

In poker the number of cards left in the pack, the outs, should only help you and your hand. Imagine this one, seven card stud and you’ve got two flush and a pair. You decide the games 7:1 against you, the next round’s dealt and there’s another out without your cards left in it. You now need to look at the pot odds, with pot odds of five or six to one every successive out in your favor makes it more likely to be worth not folding; despite having been in a relatively poor position to start with.

Pot odds and the best losing hand.

Winning second best is not, of course winning, but having the best losing hand can still be worth while in money terms, according to the pot odds. In the knowledge that you can’t win, you don’t automatically need to fold. If you were to be 5:1 against winning with 7:1 pot odds making a call is worth it. However, looking at it a different way, things might not seem so good. If you think your opponents got a 1:3.33 chance of winning, they’re obviously playing a good hand. Being 5:1 against yourself, you’ve a 1:6 chance of making your hand, with a 7:10 possibility of actually doing it. The result of this is that you fall back to a 1:7.5 chance of winning. You won’t feel so confident now – and it’s probably time to fold.

Finally, back to that calculation ….

… the answer to the pot odds for 9D, 10D, JA, QD; mentioned earlier. Any of the four 8s or the four Kings would do, so you’re after any one of eight cards from 47, so it comes down to 8 cards from 39 – giving 4.88:1.

You might need a calculator for some pot odds